Srinagar, Apr 27: Kashmir is likely to face mild water stress this year following a sharp decline in snow levels across the wider Hindu Kush Himalayan region, though precipitation in March and April has helped cushion the immediate impact.
A new assessment by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMD) found that snow persistence (the duration snow remains on the ground) fell 27.8 percent below normal between November 2025 and March 2026, the lowest level recorded in more than two decades.
The Hindu Kush Himalayan region, stretching from Afghanistan to Myanmar and often called the “water tower of Asia,” feeds 12 major river basins that sustain nearly 2 billion people.
Snowmelt contributes roughly one-fourth of the annual runoff across these systems.
Impact on Kashmir moderated
Experts say Kashmir, part of the Western Himalayas within the Indus basin, is already seeing the effects of declining snowpack, though not at severe levels so far this year. “The fallout will be there in Kashmir, but not to that extent,” said Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department in Kashmir.
“March and April witnessed good precipitation, including snowfall in the higher reaches, which has helped ease water stress for now,” he said.
However, Ahmad warned that the long-term trend remains concerning.
“Except for the winters of 2020 and 2021, peak winter months, especially December and January, have remained largely dry since 2018,” he said. “High maximum and minimum temperatures and prolonged dry spells have led to significant shrinkage of glacier areas in the Indus basin headwaters.”
Ahmad said that climate change is altering precipitation patterns.
“Increasingly, snowfall is being replaced by rainfall, even during core winter months,” he said, adding that this winter followed a similar pattern of extended dry spells and above-normal temperatures.
Snowpack remains fragile
Despite recent precipitation, the snowpack remains weak. “The recent snowfall has helped maintain flows, but the snow layering is still weak and will not sustain for long,”
Ahmad said, adding that much will depend on the second-stage forecast expected in mid-May.
Seasonal snow acts as a slow-release water reserve, critical for sustaining river flows and groundwater recharge through warmer months.
Indus-Jhelum system under strain
Geologist Riyaz Ahmad Mir of the National Institute of Hydrology in Jammu said Kashmir’s vulnerability is tied to its location within the Indus basin, where warming trends are more pronounced. “Kashmir is seeing more frequent snow droughts because it lies within the Indus basin, where warming is strongest,” Mir said.
“Since the 1980s, average winter temperatures in Kashmir have risen by about 0.8 degrees Celsius, with faster warming after 2000. As a result, a larger share of winter precipitation now falls as rain instead of snow,” he said.
Mir said recent winters have recorded snowfall deficits ranging from 40% to 80%, while satellite observations show a 20% to 25% decline in snow cover across the Valley.
“The shrinking snowpack in the Himalayan ecosystem is already affecting the Indus–Jhelum River system, which depends on slow, sustained snowmelt,” he said. “The Jhelum, springs and groundwater recharge in Kashmir are directly linked to snowmelt in the Indus basin headwaters.”
“Snow droughts are leading to low spring and summer flows and the drying of traditional water sources,” Mir said.
Impact on livelihoods
The effects are being felt across sectors.
“Apple orchards and paddy fields rely on gradual snowmelt. Winter tourism is suffering, and drinking water security is becoming fragile,” he said.
Spring relief, long-term concern
Climate scientist Sonam Lotus said spring precipitation has eased immediate concerns.
“This winter, much of the western and central Himalayas received snowfall,” Lotus said. “March and April in Kashmir and Ladakh witnessed good precipitation, including snowfall in higher reaches.”
“This has eased the water-related stress for now,” he said.
A continuing trend
This marks the fourth consecutive winter of below-normal snowfall in the region.
Since 2003, at least 14 winters have recorded similar deficits. Glaciers long-term frozen reservoirs are melting at nearly twice the rate observed before 2000, raising concerns about future water availability.
Call for preparedness
Scientists have called for urgent measures, including strengthening early warning systems, enhancing seasonal water storage and improving coordination between agriculture and hydropower sectors.
Without such planning, even mild snowfall deficits could lead to reduced summer river flows, increased strain on drinking water supplies and greater dependence on groundwater extraction.
