Srinagar, May 3: Jammu and Kashmir is set to experience a wetter and cooler-than-usual May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, as erratic weather conditions have already begun across the region.
The IMD has forecast above-normal precipitation for May, indicating a departure from the region’s typical early summer pattern of rising temperatures and dry weather.
“Most parts of the Union Territory, including the Kashmir Valley, are likely to receive higher-than-average rainfall, with frequent precipitation and persistent cloud cover throughout the month, the department said.
Maximum temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms, leading to milder daytime conditions.
The IMD said its outlook is based on probabilistic seasonal models and may vary at the local level.
El Niño and IOD to shape monsoon
Neutral Pacific conditions are transitioning toward El Niño, expected to develop by July and persist into early 2027, historically linked to weaker monsoons and droughts in India.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to shift to a positive phase later in the season, potentially altering rainfall patterns.
The IMD and World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) caution that these evolving climate drivers could influence both the timing and distribution of the southwest monsoon.
Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department, said the western disturbances affecting J&K are mostly feeble to moderate.
Intermittent rains lashed parts of central and north Kashmir late Friday before spreading to south Kashmir, a meteorological official said.
Several areas of Srinagar, along with Shopian and Kund in Kulgam district, witnessed heavy hailstorms and gusty winds, causing damage to apple orchards.
The Jammu region also received intermittent rainfall, bringing some relief from the heat wave conditions.
“Light to moderate intermittent rainfall will continue in several areas, with a few places likely to receive short spells of heavy thundershowers over the next two days,” the official said.
Weather is expected to remain mostly stable during the first half of May 5, with thundershowers likely in the afternoon and evening.
Conditions are expected to turn largely dry on May 6, although brief thundershowers may occur in higher reaches later in the day.
